Sensitivity analysis of key factors influencing concession period estimation in PPP wastewater treatment projects: a system dynamics approach
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Published:
2025-12-19
Keywords:
public-private partnership, wastewater treatment, concession period, system dynamics, risk decoupled net present value
Main Article Content
Abstract
Population growth, combined with a lack of adequate financing, has led to the need for innovative infrastructure financing solutions in developing countries. The mechanism for dealing with these challenges has been, to a certain degree, made viable through the establishment of public–private partnerships (PPPs). This study aims to develop a system dynamics (SD) model using AnyLogic to determine the optimal concession period for wastewater treatment PPPs. The model incorporates construction costs, discount rates, construction duration, and pre-construction expenses to provide an integrative mode of decision-making. This model's application is demonstrated through a case study of the New Cairo Wastewater Treatment Plant, where the optimum concession period turned out to be 19 years. Sensitivity analysis showed that construction costs and discount rates are the most significant factors impacting the estimation of the concession period. The benefits of the SD approach were further validated through comparison with Monte Carlo simulations and agent-based modeling regarding capturing dynamic feedback mechanisms. The paper emphasizes the essence of adaptive governance and flexible contract structures that can help mitigate financial risks and build stakeholder confidence. The study presents practical recommendations to policymakers and practitioners.
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How to Cite
Sensitivity analysis of key factors influencing concession period estimation in PPP wastewater treatment projects: a system dynamics approach. (2025). Construction Economics and Building, 25(3/4). https://doi.org/10.5130/AJCEB.v25i3/4.9514
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Guasch, J. L., J.-J. Laffont, and S. Straub. 2008. “Renegotiation of concession contracts in Latin America.” Int. J. Ind. Organ., 26 (2): 421–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2007.05.003.
Guo, J., S. Hao, and X. Ren. 2016. “Concession Period Flexible Adjustment Mechanism Analysis Based on the Condition of Risk in a PPP Project.” ICCREM 2016 BIM Appl. Offsite Constr. - Proc. 2016 Int. Conf. Constr. Real Estate Manag., 822–828.
Guo, K., L. Zhang, and T. Wang. 2021. “Concession period optimisation in complex projects under uncertainty: a public–private partnership perspective.” Constr. Manag. Econ., 39 (2): 156–172. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2020.1849752.
Guo, Y., C. Chen, X. Luo, and I. Martek. 2024. “Determining concessionary items for ‘availability payment only’ PPP projects: a holistic framework integrating Value-For-Money and social values.” J. Civ. Eng. Manag., 30 (2): 149–167. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2024.20841.
Hadi, A. H., and K. R. Erzaij. 2019. “Determination a Reasonable Concession Period for (PPP) Projects.” Civ. Eng. J., 5 (6): 1235–1248. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2019-03091328.
Hamidreza, A., N. Sajad, H. Abbasianjahromi, and S. Naserkhaki. 2023. “Using Agent-Based Modeling to Determine the Concession Period of BOT Contracts.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 29 (2): 4023010. American Society of Civil Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1061/JITSE4.ISENG-2183.
Hanafizadeh, P., and V. Latif. 2011. “Robust net present value.” Math. Comput. Model., 54 (1): 233–242. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.02.005.
Hanaoka, S., and H. P. Palapus. 2012. “Reasonable concession period for build-operate-transfer road projects in the Philippines.” Int. J. Proj. Manag., 30 (8): 938–949. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.02.001.
IFC. 2012. “Public-private partnerships conference june 6, 2012 | dakar, senegal.” PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS Conf. JUNE 6, 2012 | DAKAR, SENEGAL.
Javed, A. A., P. T. I. Lam, and A. P. C. Chan. 2014. “Change negotiation in public-private partnership projects through output specifications: an experimental approach based on game theory.” Constr. Manag. Econ., 32 (4): 323–348. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2014.895846.
Jin, H., and C. Liu. 2023. “Incorporating Social Benefits in Concession Price Negotiation for Public–Private Partnership Contracts.” J. Leg. Aff. Disput. Resolut. Eng. Constr., 15 (1): 4522040. American Society of Civil Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000582.
Jin, H., S. Liu, J. Li, and C. Liu. 2020a. “A game-theoretic approach to developing a concession renegotiation framework for user-pays PPPs.” Int. J. Constr. Manag., 20 (6): 642–652. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2020.1738003.
Jin, H., S. Liu, J. Li, and C. Liu. 2020b. “Imperfect Information Bargaining Model for Determining Concession Period of PPPs under Revenue Uncertainty.” J. Leg. Aff. Disput. Resolut. Eng. Constr., 12 (2). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000382.
Jin, H., S. Liu, C. Liu, and N. Udawatta. 2019. “Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk.” Eng. Constr. Archit. Manag., 26 (10): 2347–2363. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-05-2018-0201.
Jin, H., S. Liu, J. Sun, and C. Liu. 2021. “Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements.” Eur. J. Oper. Res., 291 (2): 512–524. Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.12.013.
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