Future desertification and climate change: The need for land-surface system evaluation improvement

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dc.contributor.author Henderson-Sellers, A. en_US
dc.contributor.author Irannejad, P en_US
dc.contributor.author Mcguffie, Kendal en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2010-05-28T09:43:43Z
dc.date.available 2010-05-28T09:43:43Z
dc.date.issued 2008 en_US
dc.identifier 2008002014 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Henderson-Sellers A., Irannejad P, and Mcguffie Kendal 2008, 'Future desertification and climate change: The need for land-surface system evaluation improvement', Elsevier, vol. 64, no. 3-4, pp. 129-138. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0921-8181 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/8516
dc.description.abstract In already drought-stressed areas and places with the potential for desertification as a result of greenhouse-induced change, high quality model-derived climate projections are essential for sustainable management. Today's challenge is how to select from the plethora of models and proposed new analyses the tools most likely to be valid for areas already water-stressed and those threatened by future surface moisture reduction. Here, the land-surface skills of models involved in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and new techniques of isotopic enrichment of components of evapotranspiration are analyzed. Both are found to have shortcomings. Surprisingly poor reporting of fundamental components of the land-surface system in standard model output was the largest challenge for widely accepted models. We show that very few of a large group (20) of today's climate models report land-surface water and energy budgets correctly in a well-controlled international experiment and that most fail basic conservation tests. Our analysis of a smaller (5) experiment suggests that isotopic techniques employed in arid zone irrigation management may not transition to evaluation and model improvement. Land-surface conditions important for policy are found to be poorly reported which raises questions about equal weighting given by international assessments to all models: good and bad en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.06.007 en_US
dc.title Future desertification and climate change: The need for land-surface system evaluation improvement en_US
dc.parent Global and Planetary Change en_US
dc.journal.volume 64 en_US
dc.journal.number 3-4 en_US
dc.publocation Amsterdam en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 129 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 138 en_US
dc.cauo.name SCI.Physics and Advanced Materials en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 040600 en_US
dc.personcode 0000049241 en_US
dc.personcode 0000049242 en_US
dc.personcode 880408 en_US
dc.percentage 100 en_US
dc.classification.name Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords climate change; desertification prediction; land-moisture simulation; water isotopes; arid land-management en_US
dc.staffid 880408 en_US

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