Forecasting Peak Demand - what do we need to know?

Abstract

Peak day demand is a key design parameter for assessing the future capital infrastructure needs of bulk water delivery systems. In addition, an understanding of peak demand is critical in designing demand management programs and establishing cost recovery pricing regimes. Despite the importance of peak demand on system design, little detailed research has been undertaken on developing approaches for forecasting peak demand. Accordingly, this paper identifies the non-elimatic factors found to affect peak demand and examines changes in technology, land use and behaviour and their influence on peak demand forecasts. Furthermore, the paper contrasts several methods for forecasting peak demand by emphasising the advantages and limitations of each. The paper concludes by proposing an alternative methodology to forecast trends in peak demand through the creation of an innovative end use model for the residential sector. The limitations of the methodology and data requirements are discussed, as are the implications for designing peak demand management programs.