Abstract:
Peak day demand is a key design parameter for assessing the future capital infrastructure
needs of bulk water delivery systems. In addition, an understanding of peak demand is
critical in designing demand management programs and establishing cost recovery pricing
regimes. Despite the importance of peak demand on system design, little detailed
research has been undertaken on developing approaches for forecasting peak demand.
Accordingly, this paper identifies the non-elimatic factors found to affect peak demand and
examines changes in technology, land use and behaviour and their influence on peak
demand forecasts. Furthermore, the paper contrasts several methods for forecasting peak
demand by emphasising the advantages and limitations of each.
The paper concludes by proposing an alternative methodology to forecast trends in peak
demand through the creation of an innovative end use model for the residential sector. The
limitations of the methodology and data requirements are discussed, as are the
implications for designing peak demand management programs.
