High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

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dc.contributor.author Ward, James en_US
dc.contributor.author Mohr, Steve en_US
dc.contributor.author Myers, Baden en_US
dc.contributor.author Pell, Willem en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2014-04-03T01:22:43Z
dc.date.available 2014-04-03T01:22:43Z
dc.date.issued 2012 en_US
dc.identifier 2012003004 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Ward, James et al. 2012, 'High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment', Energy Policy, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 598-604. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0301-4215 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/22798
dc.description.abstract The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.title High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment en_US
dc.parent Energy Policy en_US
dc.journal.volume 51 en_US
dc.journal.number 1 en_US
dc.publocation The Netherlands en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 598 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 604 en_US
dc.cauo.name DVCRch.Institute for Sustainable Futures en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 050200 en_US
dc.personcode 0000093400 en_US
dc.personcode 112568 en_US
dc.personcode 0000093401 en_US
dc.personcode 0000093402 en_US
dc.percentage 100 en_US
dc.classification.name Environmental Science and Management en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords Fossil fuel depletion; Greenhouse gas emissions; Long term climate projections en_US

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