Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

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dc.contributor.author Giurco, Damien en_US
dc.contributor.author Cohen, B en_US
dc.contributor.author Warnken, Matthew en_US
dc.contributor.author Langham, Ed en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2012-10-12T03:34:38Z
dc.date.available 2012-10-12T03:34:38Z
dc.date.issued 2011 en_US
dc.identifier 2009007220 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Giurco Damien et al. 2011, 'Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology', Elsevier, vol. 78, no. 5, pp. 797-818. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0040-1625 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/18729
dc.description.abstract Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Rob??rt et al. [2]. en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.relation.hasversion Accepted manuscript version en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.004 en_US
dc.rights NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, [Volume 78, Issue 5, June 2011, Pages 797–818] DOI# http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.004 en_US
dc.title Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology en_US
dc.parent Technological Forecasting and Social Change en_US
dc.journal.volume 78 en_US
dc.journal.number 5 en_US
dc.publocation Netherlands en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 797 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 818 en_US
dc.cauo.name DVCRch.Institute for Sustainable Futures en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 140200 en_US
dc.personcode 996446 en_US
dc.personcode 0000052214 en_US
dc.personcode 101271 en_US
dc.personcode 0000043207 en_US
dc.percentage 100 en_US
dc.classification.name Applied Economics en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords coal; scenarios, regional futures; industrial ecology; life cycle assessment en_US
dc.staffid en_US


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