Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

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Show simple item record Poulter, Benjamin en_US Hattermann, Fred en_US Hawkins, Ed en_US Zaehles, Zonke en_US Sitch, Stephen en_US Restrepo Coupe, Natalia en_US Heyder, Ursala en_US Cramer, Wolfgang en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US 2012-02-02T06:51:43Z 2012-02-02T06:51:43Z 2010 en_US
dc.identifier 2010001590 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Poulter Benjamin et al. 2010, 'Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters', Blackwell, vol. 16, no. 9, pp. 2476-2495. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1354-1013 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.description.abstract Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon `dieback? results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required. en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Blackwell en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon en_US
dc.title Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters en_US
dc.parent Global Change Biology en_US
dc.journal.volume 16 en_US
dc.journal.number 9 en_US
dc.publocation UK en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 2476 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 2495 en_US SCI.Faculty of Science en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 050200 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066430 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066431 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066432 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066433 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066434 en_US
dc.personcode 111752 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066435 en_US
dc.personcode 0000066436 en_US
dc.percentage 100 en_US Environmental Science and Management en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords NA en_US

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