Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via theoretical modelling

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dc.contributor.author Mohr, Steve en_US
dc.contributor.author Evans, Geoffrey en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2012-02-02T06:34:19Z
dc.date.available 2012-02-02T06:34:19Z
dc.date.issued 2008 en_US
dc.identifier 2010002709 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Mohr Steve and Evans Geoffrey 2008, 'Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via theoretical modelling', Springer, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-11. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1573-8981 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/14777
dc.description.abstract A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert?s bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R 2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert?s curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R 2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2?3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013. en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Springer en_US
dc.relation.hasversion Accepted manuscript version en_US
dc.rights The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com en_US
dc.title Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via theoretical modelling en_US
dc.parent Natural Resources Research en_US
dc.journal.volume 17 en_US
dc.journal.number 1 en_US
dc.publocation Netherlands en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 11 en_US
dc.cauo.name DVCRch.Institute for Sustainable Futures en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 050200 en_US
dc.personcode 112568 en_US
dc.personcode 0000067831 en_US
dc.percentage 50 en_US
dc.classification.name Environmental Science and Management en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords Peak oil - modeling - Hubbert?s curve en_US


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