Are Economic Forecasts Rational?

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Show simple item record Keane, Michael en_US Runkle, D en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US 2011-02-07T06:26:01Z 2011-02-07T06:26:01Z 1989 en_US
dc.identifier 2009000232 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Keane Michael and Runkle D 1989, 'Are Economic Forecasts Rational?', Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 26-33. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0271-5287 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.description.abstract his paper discusses at an undergraduate level how forecast rationality can be tested. It explains that forecasters should correctly use any relevant information they knew in making their predictions. It shows that forecast rationality can be tested by determining whether the forecasters' prediction errors are predictable. After addressing what data and methods can be used for testing rationality, the paper presents tests of the price-forecast rationality of individual professional forecasters. Unlike results of previous studies, the test results show that those forecasters' price predictions appear to be rational. en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon NA en_US
dc.title Are Economic Forecasts Rational? en_US
dc.parent Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review en_US
dc.journal.volume 13 en_US
dc.journal.number 2 en_US
dc.publocation USA en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 26 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 33 en_US BUS.School of Finance and Economics en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 140212 en_US
dc.personcode 998871 en_US
dc.personcode 0000033773 en_US
dc.percentage 100 en_US Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory) en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords NA en_US
dc.staffid en_US

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