Limits to prediction in a size-resolved pelagic ecosystem model

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dc.contributor.author Baird, Mark en_US
dc.contributor.editor en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2011-02-07T06:21:16Z
dc.date.available 2011-02-07T06:21:16Z
dc.date.issued 2010 en_US
dc.identifier 2009006616 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Baird Mark 2010, 'Limits to prediction in a size-resolved pelagic ecosystem model', Oxford University Press, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 1131-1146. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0142-7873 en_US
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/13392
dc.description.abstract A size-resolved pelagic ecosystem model has been developed based on a continuous (with size) set of model equations and using allometric relationships to specify size-dependent physiological rates. Numerical experiments with identical model equations but different initial conditions and size-class distributions are used to investigate inherent limits to prediction of instantaneous state from an initial condition. The simulations have relatively constant physical forcings, such as solar radiation, to emphasize the dynamical properties of the size-resolved model. Initial condition experiments show that perturbations of 1, 0.1, 0.01, 0.001 and 0.0001% of the initial biomass of individual size-classes from a flat size spectrum lead to equal spread of model trajectories. The greatest divergence of trajectories occurs when a 2.7 ?m equivalent spherical radius phytoplankton size-class blooms. This divergence has a finite-time Lyapunov exponent of 0.21 day-1 and a prediction time of 33 days for a precision of 10-3 mol N m-3. Large member ensembles can approximately halve the effect of growth of initial condition perturbations on prediction. en_US
dc.language en_US
dc.publisher Oxford University Press en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbq024 en_US
dc.title Limits to prediction in a size-resolved pelagic ecosystem model en_US
dc.parent Journal Of Plankton Research en_US
dc.journal.volume 32 en_US
dc.journal.number 8 en_US
dc.publocation Oxford, UK en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 1131 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 1146 en_US
dc.cauo.name SCI.Faculty of Science en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 060700 en_US
dc.personcode 108934 en_US
dc.percentage 100 en_US
dc.classification.name Plant Biology en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords * plankton * size * Lyapunov exponent * ensemble spread * initial conditions * prediction en_US
dc.staffid en_US
dc.staffid 108934 en_US


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