http://hdl.handle.net/10453/257 2013-06-20T07:17:06Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/12585 Comments on 'Convergence Properties Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models' Ackerberg Dan; Geweke John; Hahn Jinyong We show by counterexample that Proposition 2 in Fernández-Villaverde, Rubio- Ramírez, and Santos (Econometrica (2006), 74, 93¿119) is false. We also show that even if their Proposition 2 were corrected, it would be irrelevant for parameter estimates. As a more constructive contribution, we consider the effects of approximation error on parameter estimation, and conclude that second order approximation errors in the policy function have at most second order effects on parameter estimates. 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/11840 The permanent need for political economy O'Donnell Rod My purpose here is to offer, in hindsight, an assessment of the significance of the dispute in terms of its two underlying issues ¿ the nature of economics and the role of university ideals. I write as someone who was a student activist, both inside and outside official channels, from 1974 to 1977 during the first major phase of the dispute, who graduated with degrees in economics (BEc) and philosophy (BA) and who, supported by scholarships from Sydney University, took a doctorate in Economics at Cambridge prior to returning to Australia and an academic career. 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/10004 Bayesian Inference for Hospital Quality in a Selection Model Geweke John; Gowrisankaran G.; Town R.J. This paper develops new econometric methods to infer hospital quality in a model with discrete dependent variables and nonrandom selection. Mortality rates in patient discharge records are widely used to infer hospital quality. However, hospital admission is not random and some hospitals may attract patients with greater unobserved severity of illness than others. In this situation the assumption of random admission leads to spurious inference about hospital quality. This study controls for hospital selection using a model in which distance between the patient's residence and alternative hospitals are key exogenous variables. Bayesian inference in this model is feasible using a Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulator, and attaches posterior probabilities to quality comparisons between individual hospitals and groups of hospitals. The study uses data on 74,848 Medicare patients admitted to 114 hospitals in Los Angeles County from 1989 through 1992 with a diagnosis of pneumonia. It finds the smallest and largest hospitals to be of the highest quality. There is strong evidence of dependence between the unobserved severity of illness and the assignment of patients to hospitals, whereby patients with a high unobserved severity of illness are disproportionately admitted to high quality hospitals. Consequently a conventional probit model leads to inferences about quality that are markedly different from those in this study's selection model. 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/9999 Classification error in dynamic discrete choice models: Implications for female labor supply behavior Keane Michael; Sauer Rm Two key issues in the literature on female labor supply are (i) whether persistence in employment status is due to unobserved heterogeneity or state dependence, and (ii) whether fertility is exogenous to labor supply. Until recently, the consensus was that unobserved heterogeneity is very important and fertility is endogenous. Hyslop (1999) challenged this. Using a dynamic panel probit model of female labor supply including heterogeneity and state dependence, he found that adding autoregressive errors led to a substantial diminution in the importance of heterogeneity. This, in turn, meant he could not reject that fertility is exogenous. Here, we extend Hyslop (1999) to allow classification error in employment status, using an estimation procedure developed by Keane and Wolpin (2001) and Keane and Sauer (2005). We find that a fairly small amount of classification error is enough to overturn Hyslop's conclusions, leading to overwhelming rejection of the hypothesis of exogenous fertility. 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z