Forecasting the manpower demand for quantity surveyors in Hong Kong
Recently, there has been a massive infrastructure development and an increasing demand for public and private housing, resulting in a shortage of qualified quantity surveyors. This study aims to forecast the demand for qualified quantity surveyors in Hong Kong from 2013 to 2015. Literature review indicates that the demand for quantity surveyors is a function of the gross values of building, civil engineering and maintenance works. The proposed forecasting method consists of two steps. The first step is to estimate the gross values of building, civil engineering and maintenance works by time series methods and the second step is to forecast the manpower demand for quantity surveyors by causal methods. The data for quantity surveyors and construction outputs are based on the ‘manpower survey reports of the building and civil engineering industry’ and the ‘gross value of construction works performed by main contractors’ respectively. The forecasted manpower demand for quantity surveyors in 2013, 2014 and 2015 are 2,480, 2,632 and 2,804 respectively. Due to the low passing rate of the assessment of professional competence (APC) and the increasing number of retired qualified members, there will be a serious shortage of qualified quantity surveyors in the coming three years.
Ball, J. and St Cyr, E. (1966) Short-term employment functions in British manufacturing, Review of Economic Studies, 33, 179-207.
Ball M. and Wood, A. (1995) How many jobs does construction expenditure generate? Construction Management and Economics, 13, 307-318.
Beenstock, M. and Warburbon, P. (1982). “An aggregative model of the UK labour market.” Oxford Economic Papers, 34(2), 253-275.
Briscoe, G. and Wilson, R. (1993) Employment forecasting in the construction industry. Avebury Publishing Co., Hants, England.
Dhrymes, P.J. (1969) A model of short-run labour adjustment, in Duesenberry, et. al. (eds.), The Brookings Model: Some Further Results, North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, pp. 110-150.
Evans, G.J. and Roberts, C.J. (1975) Short-run employment functions in simulation and forecasting. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 24(4), 269-282.
Gujarati, D.N. and Porter, D.C. (2009) Basic econometrics. McGraw-Hill, New York.
Maddala, G.S. (2001) Introduction to econometrics. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England.
Ng, S.T. and others (2011) Development strategy for professional resources of Hong Kong’s construction and related engineering service sector. A consultancy study for Development Bureau, the HKSAR Government submitted by the University of Hong Kong in association with the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Ove Arup Hong Kong Limited, Hong Kong.
Rosenfeld, Y. and Warszawski, A. (1993) Forecasting methodology of national demand for construction labour. Construction Management and Economics, 11(1), 18-29.
Uwakweh, B.O. and Maloney, W.F. (1991) Conceptual models for manpower planning for the construction industry in developing countries. Construction Management and Economics, 9(5), 451-465.
Wong, J.M.W., Chan, A.P.C. and Chiang, Y.H. (2005) Times series forecasts of the construction labour market in Hong Kong: the Box-Jenkins approach. Construction Management and Economics, 23, 979-991.
Wong, J.M.W., Chan, A.P.C. and Chiang, Y.H. (2010) Construction manpower demand forecasting: a comparative study of univariate time series, multiple regression and econometric modelling techniques. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 18(1), 7-29.