Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong

Xin Janet, Ka-Chi Lam


Abstract

This paper builds a house prices forecasting model for private residential houses in HongKong, based on general macroeconomic indicators, housing related data and demographicfactors for the period of 1980 to 2001. A reduce form economic model has been derivedfrom a multiple regression analysis where three sets and eight models were derived foranalysis and comparison. It is found that household income, land supply, population andmovements in the Hang Seng Index play an important role in explaining house pricemovements in Hong Kong. In addition, political events, as identified, cannot be ignored.However, the results of the models are unstable. It is suggested that the OLS may nota best method for house prices model in Hong Kong situation. Alternative methods aresuggested.

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